Archive for September, 2007

Long Memories and Anniversaries

Tuesday, September 18th, 2007

 This past weekend, a long time friend and colleague reminded me that, exactly 20 years ago, he and I  were participating in a brokerage industry seminar at a top quality resort near the Rocky Mountains.  Times were good, the markets were bullish, the food and drinks were plentiful and the Greed was rampant.  It made me nervous !   Too much euphoria, too many over confident newbie brokers.  I remember asking one of the high-profile speakers about the risk of default for AAA rated US debt.   He laughed at that idea and yes, that was exactly one month before “Black Monday,”  October 19, 1987.  The markets plunged 23 % in one day!  Since then  we have had the Lincoln Savings collapse in 1989, the Long Term Capital Management scare in 1998,  the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, and now the sub-prime mortgage & housing debacle which is ongoing.   Check out the story  of  Northern Rock PLC  on :


http://www.frontlinethoughts.com

Yes, I was there on “Black Monday,” 1987. 

Yes, I have a long memory.

Yes anniversaries are important.

Oct 1987…hmmm.       Oct 2007…hmmm.

Hi, and welcome to Greg’s Blog

Monday, September 10th, 2007

As I am writing our stockmarketsignal.com web pages, I often think of related topics that would be interesting to discuss back and forth with our readers. Questions like What is the big picture in the stock markets?  What are the likely risks and potential rewards that will become apparent to investors over the next several years?  Now I don’t present myself as knowing the answers to these questions but I enjoy thinking about them , reading the opinions of others and discussing them with other interested people like yourselves.

As a beginning, let me suggest a couple of things that may have a big effect on all of us in the near future. 

The huge credit bubble which has been expanding for the last couple of decades seems to be bursting with the sub prime mortgage debacle, and this should lead to at least a recession and perhaps even a depression.

Safety of capital will become of prime concern and will replace the greedy overvaluation of almost every new paper asset marketed over the past decade. Those who are able to protect their buying power will have ample opportunity to shop for bargains when prices once again are in-line with intrinsic value.

When I put forward ideas to talk about, I will try to provide you with links to respected sources which support our discussion. Here are the first two:

John Mauldin’s weekly e-letter provides a wealth of  interesting analysis on current economic and investment developments such as “Should the Fed cut interest rates?”
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com

Bob Prechter’s comments on , “What is Deflation and What causes it to Occur?” are must reading.
http://www.elliotwave.com/deflation/